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House prices chart points to leap in values


02-08-2014

 

Chart of the day: Plotting the Rics survey against the monthly Halifax report gives a clear signal

RICS vs halifax
RICS vs halifax Photo: Capital Economics
 

The Rics study is regarded by some economists as a reasonable early warning of market trends, although certainly not a slavish predictor.

The trend it suggest now appears clear: that prices will continue to bubble higher in coming months.

The Rics research involves asking surveyors in estate agents around the country the same questions every month, including how they expect prices to change over the next three months, which forms the line for the graph.

This sentiment measure is plotted against Halifax's actual reported changes in the market.

Halifax today reported prices were rose by 1.1pc last month and are nearly 8pc higher than a year earlier. The price-to-earnings ratio, values compared with average values and a key measure, was at 4.74, the highest level since October 2008 (more below).

Matthew Pointon, property economist at Captial Economics, explains what the market, and the chart, tells us.

He said: "A surge in demand for houses with no concurrent rise in homes coming on to the market has put upwards pressure on prices. That rise in demand reflects the improving labour market, as well as buyers rushing in to benefit from an expected rise in prices.

"Those expectations have in turn have been boosted by Government efforts to pump up demand via the Help to Buy scheme.

"Indeed, the balance of Rics surveyors expecting a rise in prices over the nextthree months would suggest prices are, if anything, lower than might be expected.

"But note the Rics measure just shows that prices are now expected to rise in more parts of the country. In percentage terms, surveyors are forecasting prices to rise by a modest 3.5pc this year.

"If prices continue to rise by 1.1pc per month, house prices on this measure will pass their previous peak by the end of the year, which will stoke concerns that a new house price bubble is forming. But we expect gains will moderate over the year.

"Rising wholesale interest rates suggests mortgage rates are likely to edge up over the year, curbing demand. And improved selling conditions should mean more homes come onto the market, relieving the upwards pressure on prices."

One other chart of note is the house prices versus earnings, published today by Halifax. This is regarded as a keep measure of over or under valuation and is currently well above the long-run average of around 4.1.

Last month this ratio was at its highest level, at 4.74, since October 2008, a year after the last crash in house prices began.

The other peak, the first, is for the bubble of the late Eighties.

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