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London house price growth slows


04-28-2016

 

An estate agent arranges a photographic display of exteriors and interiors of available residential properties in London, U.K., on Monday, Dec. 30, 2013. U.K. house prices rose in December and will extend gains in 2014, led by London and southeast England, Hometrack Ltd. said. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

©Bloomberg

House price growth in London is beginning to slow after three years of double-digit rises, bringing some relief to would-be homebuyers in the capital.

Several early indicators show “a weakening in the market which hasn’t yet been picked up in the house price indices”, said Lucian Cook, director of residential research at Savills, the listed estate agency.

While prices are already falling for properties at the top of the market, a softening has now spread to homes in central London costing £500,000 to £1m, where growth now stands at an annual 3.4 per cent, according to Savills’ indices — down from more than 15 per cent in early 2014.

Meanwhile, the ratio of demand and supply across London — as measured by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, which surveys members on new buyer inquiries and homes arriving on the market — has tipped into negative territory, Mr Cook said.

“Historically this has been a good early lead indicator of the market,” he said. “It doesn’t necessarily mean price falls but certainly suggests an impending slowdown in growth.”

But opinions differ on whether the slowdown, also flagged on Wednesday by the listed estate agency Foxtons, is down to jitters ahead of the June vote on the UK’s EU membership or represents a broader turning of the market. A harsher tax regime for buy-to-let properties is also expected to play a role.

Mr Cook said there was a “natural slowing in the rate of house price growth”. “We’ve reached the point in London where the market is being constrained to more affluent households who are pushing borrowing up to the top levels allowed under mortgage regulation, and considering areas they wouldn’t have five years ago.

“Brexit has an impact on sentiment, but this is also a sign of where we are in the cycle.”

Price indices have presented wildly contrasting pictures of the health of the housing market – according to some the boom is back, while to others the slump staggers on

Affordability for London householders has been increasingly stretched, reaching almost 10 times earnings, according to figures from Halifax. Average London prices rose 13.5 per cent in the year to February, according to the Land Registry, and almost as much in the two years before that. This has displaced some buyers into the commuter belt, said Mr Cook.

Ed Mead, executive director at Douglas & Gordon, said that “the market has now swung towards buyers a little bit”.

“We have about 20 per cent more stock [on sale] under £1m than we did this time last year, but about 35 per cent more people registered to buy,” he said. “There are a lot of offers coming in, but at lower levels.”

He said that if voters choose to remain within the EU, the option that has a narrow lead in opinion polls, there would probably be a rebound in the market. “It’s a good time to be a buyer, but that may change after the Brexit vote.”

Would-be first-time buyers hoping for prices to drop may, however, be in for a long wait.

Mr Cook said that even an exit from the EU or a rise in interest rates could not be relied upon to bring prices down in the capital.

“The difficulty is that we don’t know what form Brexit would take,” he said.

“There’s an inherent undersupply of housing in London and it’s difficult to see what would trigger price falls unless you have a major negative economic event.”

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