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House prices post-Brexit: What the experts are saying


07-05-2016

 

With all the negative news about the property market, should buyers hold off on their purchase or not?

Carl Court/Getty Images

House prices post-Brexit: What the experts are saying

There has been a barrage of negativity on the property market since the UK voted to leave the EU last month. But beneath the noise, what do the experts think will really happen to house prices – and do they think buyers should press on regardless?
A sharp fall?

Among the most negative predictions comes from online property portal Zoopla, which believes the average UK property value will fall £53,000 from its current level of £297,000, according to The Times.

That's a brutal drop of almost 18 per cent and would wipe "£1.5trn off the total UK housing stock". Thankfully, it's also an outlier.

Many will remember that before the vote, the Treasury also talked about a worst-case figure of 18 per cent, but that was compared to the house price gains if Britain had voted to Remain. The actual fall from current levels would be a less eye-watering eight per cent.

Modest mixed picture?

This seems to accord with the rump of economist estimates, which is for a mixed bag of modest price falls that will see the prime London market hit harder, as it relies far more heavily on foreign investors.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes the capital could see prices fall ten per cent in the next year, while KPMG predicts a drop of five per cent across the country but more in London.

These predictions rely on the fact that general underlying demand for housing is far outstripping demand - and the assumption that a fall in buyers post-Brexit will be matched by a fall in sellers. Savills has said it expects a "low transaction market".

Reduced rises?

There are even those that follow this logic to suggest prices won't fall at all, but will rise at a less rapid rate than the current five to ten per cent annually.

The Treasury's pre-referendum base case was for house prices to be ten per cent lower over two years, meaning they would stagnate at current levels. The National Association of Estate Agents believes property will still rise, but will be £1,000 lower by the end of this year than they would have been.

Should you press on?

The consensus is that there is a good chance that prices will soften but that the ground is unlikely to fall from beneath the market, so should you go ahead with your purchase?

Experts seem to suggest this depends on the nature of the deal. If you're an investment buyer looking to buy a second home to rent, for example, it might be worth holding fire. Similarly, if you have a small deposit of five per cent, it might also be worth letting the dust settle a little.

However if you have a decent amount saved up and are looking to buy a home to live in for a number of years, it's probably worth going ahead, says Virginia Wallis in The Guardian. She adds if you are "buying a long-term home to live in", short-term price movements should prove "fairly irrelevant".

Ray Boulger, a mortgage adviser and property market commentator, says much the same in the London Evening Standard. "I’d advise people who have been looking for a property for a long time and finally found one they want to just go for it," he says.

www.theweek.co.uk/

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