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Brexit, house prices and the self-employed


02-03-2017

 

Brexit, house prices and the self-employed

Brexit talk has sent markets and commentators into a frenzy of contradictory predictions: rates will go up; rates will go down. UK businesses will be hit; UK businesses will survive.

Given the uncertainty as the UK negotiates its way out of the single market, it is impossible and irresponsible to make predictions about the impact on self-employed people in the UK and the accessibility of mortgage lending.

However, there are some known knowns and known unknowns - to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld. One of these is the effect of Brexit on sterling, which may affect small businesses who rely on imports from the European Union to carry out their activities.

In 2016, shortly after the vote to Brexit was announced, Sterling hit a 128-year low, although on the day Theresa May unveiled her Full Brexit package, sterling actually rallied slightly against the dollar. It rose past $1.23, having started the day at $1.20.

But whether any further sterling weakness will have a detrimental effect on the self-employed's finances is yet to be seen.

Adapting to Brexit

Confidence may have been affected by the decision to exit the European Union. Charles Haresnape, group managing director for mortgages at Aldermore, comments: "Our research directly after the referendum vote showed only 24 per cent of self-employed respondents were planning on purchasing their first home in the next five years, compared with 39 per cent of those in full-time employment.

"In addition, twice as many self-employed workers listed getting approved for a mortgage as their biggest obstacle to getting on the housing ladder, when compared with those in full-time employment."

That said, only 14 per cent of those surveyed said Brexit was the reason for them feeling less confident about their ability to purchase their first home and 58 per cent said the vote had "no effect" on their plans.

So fears of a lack of confidence caused solely by Brexit talk may be overblown.

Indeed, national accountancy services provider Danbro has played down Brexit fears, arguing freelancers, contractors and temporary workers will see a boost in demand as they support British firms as they try to adapt to the new landscape.

Damian Broughton, managing director of the firm, says: "We anticipate freelancers, contractors and temporary workers will be called upon to fulfill the needs of businesses who are not prepared to make long term commitments and who will require specialist help to fulfill projects.

“At the start of the 2008 recession this sector experienced rapid continued and sustainable growth. We fully expect the same will apply in the coming months and years ahead following the Brexit vote.”

Given this, respondents to the guide believe the finances of the self-employed may not be affected detrimentally, so their ability to afford a mortgage or remortgage should not be curtailed as a result of Brexit.

Rob Sinclair, chief executive of the Association of Mortgage Intermediaries (Ami), comments: "I still think that, while Brexit has elicited a lot of emotion and affected the sterling exchange rate the most, it has limited impact on the self-employed as yet."

Jamie Smith-Thompson, managing director of Portafina, has a slightly different view: he believes the uncertainty around what Brexit will mean has led to more caution from both lenders and borrowers.

He says: "Brexit uncertainty means self-employed people tend to be more careful and conscious about what they are doing because they do not have any redundancy rights, and income protection is tough to get.

"From the point of view of the lenders, the mortgage market has not really been affected by the Brexit talks, however.

"This is because there has already been an evolution in the market and lenders are far more thorough now than they were even 10 years ago."

According to Buster Tolfree, commercial director for mortgages at United Trust Bank, the nature of the industry in which the self-employed applicant works could play a part in how well (or not) people's applications are viewed post-Brexit.

He explains: "Those with incomes closely related to property, such as developers or buy-to-let landlords have already been affected by the nervousness over the future as the Brexit negotiations begin to take shape."

On the other hand, those who are working in industries that are "more stable and perhaps less Brexit-impacted", may not find it as difficult, he suggests.

House price rises

Perhaps of more concern to the self-employed market is the seemingly inexorable rise in house prices - despite the best attempts of Southern Rail to dampen house price growth along its network, as FTAdviser reported in January.

According to the Halifax house price index (highlights, left), the average price of a home in the UK is £222,484 - up 6.5 per cent on January 2016.

In January 2007, according to the Office for National Statistics, the average house price was £171,900, dropping to £157,500 in March 2009.

This was the same month the Bank of England dropped rates to 0.5 per cent.

Moreover, the price-to-earnings ratio has risen markedly; the ratio is a gauge of how affordable house prices are given average earnings.

It is now edging up towards six times earnings multiples.

Even as far back as March 2016, the Office for Budget Responsibility highlighted the ever-increasing rate of house price rises, compared with the relatively slow increases in earnings.

"Clearly the whole market is struggling with how you get onto the housing ladder initially, with the need for a significant deposit, given how prices in the south-east particularly have risen", says Ami's Mr Sinclair.

But house prices are an issue for the entire borrowing community, not just the self-employed, as Matthew Bird, independent financial planner for Seer Green, asserts: "More expensive house prices have made affordability an issue for everybody, especially for single-person households and those on lower incomes.

"Also, people with debts are struggling more with mortgage affordability than before the credit crisis, because of the stricter - and more sensible - affordability criteria."

Yet while house price rises are affecting all, the self-employed seem to have to work harder than most to convince lenders they are a good prospect.

Portafina's Mr Smith-Thompson suggests: "If someone is already self-employed and already on the ladder, then any rises in house prices are relative. 

"The hardest hit by these rises are first-time buyers."

Other factors

Not all respondents to this guide believe Brexit talk or house prices have had a detrimental effect on mortgage lending for the self-employed, however. 

As Donna Hopton, founder of adviser forum Cherry, comments: "People still need a property, and therefore what happens with the European Union does not really affect whether or not someone needs to be housed."

John Phillips, group operations director for Spicer Haart and Just Mortgages, says: "I think it was the credit crunch that had the biggest effect, because it drove a huge number of people who had lost their jobs to go self-employed instead, and this does not appear to have slowed down.

"The numbers of self-employed are not slowing down, but it is harder than ever for these people to get a mortgage."

Keith Street, vice-chairman of group lending for The Northview, believes the resilience of the housing market, coupled with house price inflation and strong lending figures in 2016, means the market in general has "held up well" despite the uncertainty of Brexit.

However, he also cautions: "With a changing labour market and greater reliance on self-employment and contract work, these types of customers must carefully research the market to ensure they can get the best possible deal."

simoney.kyriakou@ft.com

www.ftadviser.com/

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