Brexit Update end October blues
Flip -Flop: Labour have shown how stubborn and negative they are – flip flopping one way and another – to try and humiliate Boris Johnson and the Tory Party by blocking Brexit. They come and go depending on the flavour of the day and do whatever they can to frustrate progress. This is exactly what they would do in government as well in relation to:
- Supporting business
- Supporting private investment
- Supporting individuals that want to get on in life
They have shown their true colours once more – only being interested in try to seize power – they do not care that 17.2 million people democratically voted to exit the EU (the largest number of people that ever voting for anything in the history of the UK) and they have been frustrating the will of the people all this time. It’s taken 2˝ years of pain and uncertainty and they clearly want to try and derail the economy, derail the Tory party then grab power.
Labour Dragging Things Out: Boris Johnson’s deal was voted through only to be stalled out based on the timetable. Now the Labour party again refused to back a General Election – they are the first opposition party ever to do this in the last 50 years. They have now refused an election four times. On the fifth occasion they have finally agreed to an election on 12 December thank goodness. The seemed to want the zombie parliament to continue. They are appalling. This means we stay in the EU after 31 October and the Labour party has succeeded in dragging the whole process out even further. Corbyn has been more interested in personally proving that Johnson’s “dead in a ditch” claim will be wrong that supporting the UK population, business and society as a whole. Regardless of whether one voted Remain or Brexit, the uncertainty in the business environment has been most disturbing, stressful and off-putting and the credibility of Parliament as a whole and the Labour Party in particular is more or less at an all-time low. Corbyn’s personal vested interest as the negative protester he is – is clear for all to see.
Latest Developments: It now seems the EU has offer an extension to 31 January, which allows the General Election to take place. The only realistic way this could be reversed is if Labour win power or a Labour-SNP-Lib-Dem alliance-Coalition won an election before we left – and started to reverse the whole process again. Let’s just hope this does not happen. Most of business and the population have simply had enough of the focus being on Brexit for 3 years – get out of the way Labour, Lib-Dems and SNP – before the country dips into recession caused by all the uncertainty and thousands of ordinary hard working people start losing their jobs.
Just to remind our readers – we voted Remain – we want the whole thing over with quickly – we want to leave rapidly. It’s ruining businesses all the uncertainty.
Three Scenarios: Corbyn seems now to have dug himself into a ditch – because there were three scenarios by 25 Oct and it looks like he would lose in all of them:
1. Corby refuses as election – running scared – then Brexit happens – an election happens and Johnson can claim victory – he delivered Brexit
2. Corbyn agrees to an election on 12 December – with an extension in place to end Jan 2020 – and Johnson’s narrative is then – “lets get Brexit over the line, Corbyn has frustrated the will of the people long enough, you need to vote Tory, and if Labour get in, anything can happen, it could drag on for years” – this is the scenario that is now playing out
3. The UK leaves the EU after France vetoes an extension (or only gives two weeks to mid Nov) then an election happens shortly after and Johnson claims he has successfully delivered Brexit despite Corbyn trying the frustrate the will of the people at ever turn – this almost happened 26 Oct but it seems they persuaded France to back down.
Mid Winter Best: Johnson must also realise that a mid-winter election when its dark and rainy suits Tory’s more than Labour because Tory voters tend to have a better ability to get to polling stations (cars), more likely to get time off work for voting and are often more motivated to vote. He must be thinking that many Labour voters just won’t both turning up – they may intend to vote Labour but Corbyn is just not enough of an attraction to get them down the polling station in the dark, cold and rain.
Cold, Dark and Rainy: Johnson’s big hope must be stormy cold weather. Johnson has to also hope that the Brexit votes come his way – if people believe he's more or less delivered Brexit – most, may be 60% of these votes, should come to the Tory party. Even though Brexit is not quite over the line – his narrative should be – don’t waste your vote on the Brexit party because if the Lib-Dems or Labour (Coalition) get in power – they will reverse everything once more. For this reason – Johnson must be confident that the Brexit vote will be less than the threatened 15%, more like 8-12% - allowing the Tories to snatch votes off Labour in the north. If the Tories get 35%-37% of the vote, they should win a comfortable majority. But if they only get 30-34% - we are into Coalition territory again. Its also possible there is a behind the scene deal between the Tory and Brexit party or at least an acknowledgement that the Brexit party don't shoot the Tories in the foot and allow the Labour and Lib-Dem to reverse Brexit. Let’s just hope we get a majority since parliament is totally dis-functional with no overall majority as we have seen in the last 18 months. They are likely to lose votes in Scotland but could pick up votes from disillusioned Labour voters in the Midlands, North and Wales. Labour could do fairly well in London from young voters.
Deputy Speaker Helps: Importantly for the Tories, on 27-29 Oct the Deputy Speaker refused to allow a debate on whether 16 and 17 years olds should be allowed to vote – if Bercow had been in the seat it probably would have been debated and voted on, then these young people would have been allowed to vote – this age group would overwhelming vote Labour, Lib Dem or Green.
Labour Crash: For property investors – if Labour get into power we will see:
• Sterling crash as business confidence wanes, taxes on businesses and 60% of the population that earn more than the poor rise dramatically (Euro to Pound parity)
• Interest rates will rise sharply
• Inflation rates will rise
• Public sector spending would increase
• Private sector spending would decrease
• More regulations on business and individuals – more “nanny state”
• Rent caps, renters right to buy, landlords targeted -driven out of the market
• State seizure of assets and nationalisation
• State taxes on private pensions, higher inheritance taxes
• Land taxes – also on gardens
• Banks would start to relocate overseas as taxes on banking rose sharply
• Unemployment would rise sharply especially in southern England and London – when businesses started closing
• House prices across the board would crash – in part through higher property taxes and the flight of the wealthy from the UK to avoid draconian taxes
• There could be some temporary jobs growth in the north from public sector jobs expansion as more regulations came into force – but this would be temporary before the big downturn started
• The UK should stay in the EU is they switched tact and supported a Referendum creating even more uncertainty and years of angst
Socialist Britain - Back To Soviet Era: Corbyn is the most left-wing leader of a party in the whole of Europe. His policies are a throw back to the Soviet USSR era. Most people and many even in his own party believe he is not fit to govern. His roots are in socialist worker protesting and rallies. He even voted against the UK joining the common market in 1973. His policies are close to what the Soviet Union, Cuba and Venezuela have had to put up with. There is absolutely no doubt in our minds a Labour government would be a complete disaster for business, property investors and any individual that owns any form of assets – which is 70% of the population who own a house or flat. Labour want to help anyone that has no money at all – and take the wealth from the 70% that do – but such policies always lead to economic destruction and loss of employment because – and this is something Labour simply don’t understand - “all public sector employees are paid for by the taxes on the private sector that create the wealth in the first place” and “public sector is spend – it’s not a business investment”. So if you destroy the private sector with taxes, there is no money to pay for the public sector. You run out of money rapidly. Labour would simply spend, spend, spend on stupid projects – many of them white elephants – before the money ran out and the country was declared bankrupt – which it almost is already – only shored up by the Tory party cutting spending after the last Labour Government ended in 2010 have spent everything – including selling 80% of the UK gold reserves in 2001-2004 at record low gold prices of $250/ounce – known as “Brown’s Bottom” after Gordon Brown flooded the gold market and suppressed the global prices for years (by the way, gold now sits at $1500/ounce, that wasted $20 billion of our money after he started running low on money himself and sold the gold assets to help fill the gap).
Labour under Corby view the word "profit" as something like a spear word - they think it means profiteering against disadvantaged people rather than a business term for return on an investment made in a risk environment. A return for the risked capital. Labour under Corbyn want to destroy capitalism.
The message is simple. There is an election on the horizon. The only vote that will help a property investor is a Tory vote – to get Brexit finished and get some business stability back – so investment can start once more. It’s been 3 years of go slow or inactivity – and most property investors just want to get on with creating jobs, creating opportunities and providing super services to tenants – and jobs for supplier. But they have been held back too long by the Labour party and Corbyn – we hope and pray this will end shortly.
We hope this special report has helped frame your views on the current state of UK property business – regrettably dominated by the Brexit uncertainty and the threat of a Labour party victory that would also be very bad for society as a whole. If you have any queries, please contact us on