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Coronavirus Update -

05-03-2020 team

We are updating some Coronavirus learnings from our Special Report sent a few weeks ago.

Virus Likes It Cold And Dry: We mentioned that the hotter and more humid the climate the less the Coronavirus survives and generates. Normally because the summer is more humid than the winter, then cases should drop. This is exactly what is happening in Europe as we pass from April to May. The virus also does not like the heat - on 3 May parts of Spain reached temperatures of 37 deg C - the virus seems to like 4 deg C to 20 deg C, so we expect the case is Spain to drop rapidly henceforth and UK should follow shortly after.

Virus Likes Stagnant Air: Another interesting observation is that in the windy areas, there are far less coronavirus cases – for instance West Wales, SW England, Western Scotland. Of course these are also the more rural and less populated areas granted, but the areas with the highest concentration of cases have been places like Milan (Lombardy), London, Paris, New York, Madrid and Wuhan – all cities with very little wind. Okay, urban areas are often in flat lying areas where the wind is less in any case – often on the protected side of a country (ports-harbours etc), but we think the fresh ventilated area – wind and lack of pollution is important. The virus probably transmits far easier in populated urban areas which have very poor ventilation. The virus will pass on droplets of moisture in the air (sneezes and coughs, plus some heavy breathing) and probably attaches to particulate pollution from factories and cars – then finds its way to the next human being.

Hand Rails Particularly Risky: In addition, the virus can harbour itself for longer in area where there is no direct sunlight and areas that have more stagnant air - along with inside buildings that have poorer ventilation and cold air conditioning. Of course one of the main ways to transmit the virus is via touching something with the virus on it. You can imagine at a railway station for instance – hand rails have thousands of hands passing over them every day. If you want the virus, then pass your hand over one of these railings – then touch your nose or lips-mouth – and the chance of ingestion will be extremely high – just for example.

Materials and the Virus: It’s also worth mentioning the virus can last a day on metal, 2 days on plastic, but only ½ a day on cardboard and paper – it gets absorbed easily on paper. So be particularly careful touching plastic and metal – since anyone who has touched these same materials in the last 1-2 days may pass the virus to yourself or vice versa. However, if the virus is on metal in the hot sunshine, it might only last an hour or so – because of the sunlight and heat will kill it rapidly.

Virus Does Not Like The Sun: Also consider that the virus does not like the sun – the sun bleaches and kills any virus outside – it wont last long in the sun. The virus has a core of protein surrounded by a coating of fatty material – that’s why when you wash your hands with soap – it's so effective – because it simply washes away the fat, exposes the delicate protein beneath – then kills the virus. You should always thoroughly wash your hands with soap and hot or cold water for at least 30 seconds at time – and properly rinse the soap/foam off your hands – since these suds contain the virus that needs rinsing off and away.

Masks Might Not Help: It's also worth mentioning that when a person gets Coronavirus, they give off about 1 billion viruses each day – that’s 1 million of them every breath. Wearing a face mask is probably not going to help much – and may even lull you into a false sense of security. You are less likely to wash your hands – more likely to pass close to others if you were a mask. You might also touch the mask and infect it with the virus - the mask needs to stay very clean - this is a real challenge.

Cyclists Create “Airline Trail of Viruses” It's also worth considering that if a cyclist is puffing and panting – you are behind that cyclist two metres away – and they have the virus – there will be a stream – like an "airline trail" – behind them. So when you run or cycle – 2m is far too close. Make sure you hold your breath when cyclists and runner – or even walkers – pass you – especially if they are coughing, spitting or sneezing. It's just best to try and avoid as many people as you can not in your immediate social family household-group. Even being 10m behind a cyclist is probably not enough - as we have tried to show below in this pictorial.

So to minimise the risk of getting the virus, its best to:

Lockdown Benefits Not Proven: Also consider the following. There is no proof that closing down businesses and social distancing actually works with reducing the spread of the virus – it probably does, but it has huge economic, social and health ramifications. Many people will fall into social deprivation as a result of the economic fall-out – unemployment etc and knock on impacts. Sweden for example has not had a lockdown but their deaths and cases are far lower than most other European countries. Yes, people need to be careful – but draconian measures have no firm proof of working. The thing is that there is no good baseline because all countries have instituted Lockdown measures – so its difficult to quantity and compare.

Social Group: As a new addition, in the UK it is becoming far clearer now that people in lower social groups are more likely die of Coronavirus – and the ethnic minority group being worse effected. This is mostly likely cause by multiple things:

Men More At Risk: 70% of people in hospital critical care are men – whether this is because their immune systems are weaker or they are more likely to be obese, drink and smoke and eat unhealthily, or have chronic health conditions is open for debate.

Most Vulnerable: So clearly the most vulnerable to death caused by Coronavirus are - obese elderly men that smoke and have an underlying chronic-serious health condition already. And living in a polluted cold urban area mixing with lots of people will increase your chances of getting the virus in the first place.

Past The Peak in UK: Clearly the total number of UK Coronavirus deaths has dropped to around 50% of the peak back 9th April - so things are definitely improving now thankfully.

Virus May Last 70 days: There is a more radical view – and it has some merit – that the virus hits a country or region – with cases peaking around 30 days after it hits, and deaths around 40 days later – then the virus dies away to very little after about 70 days. This has been the case in China, then Italy, Spain, France and now looks likely in UK. The degree by which Lockdown helps is certainly open to question. A few people think that the virus just will not last in a city with any virulence more than 70 days period regardless of Lockdown measures.

Likely Second Wave: Where a second wave occurs – as a seasonal thing – starting in Oct-Nov is also uncertain, lets hope not of course but its between possible and probable.

Update Mid-May: Our mid May Newsletter describe more on the economic impact of Coronavirus. For now, it looks like there will be a phased release of Lockdown measures as people start to return to work mid May with social distancing measures. Unemployment will skyrocket – many companies will go bust and the days of the normal UK retain high street are over – as are pubs, clubs and many restaurants-cafes. Very sad period – with internet shopping making further big advances and the death of the small shop owners. Commercial and residential landlords are suffering hugely and this will of course impact house prices and commercial property prices across the board. More on this in a few weeks time.

We hope this Newsletter has given you some good health tips during the Coronavirus pandemic and we have to stress we are not health professionals so our advice is for guidance and interest only though we hope is helps you remain safe and the economic ramifications in the next year will not be too bad for all. If you have any queries, please contact us on

For the record – with previous mentioned the following mid April:

Health Statistics: A few statistics that are still developing – that might help you – it seems that in general terms:

African-Americans in the USA:

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