571: Coronavirus update - for investors - 15 April
04-17-2020
PropertyInvesting.net team
Collapsing Economies: Let’s be frank. The Coronavirus global crisis is leading mass scale economic destruction, a real collapse on a global scale. In the UK likely more than 2 million people will lose their jobs, GDP will crash by around 6.5% this year and house prices will certainly decline – how much is anyone’s guess. So far around 14000 people have died in hospitals and many thousands more in care homes and at home of this deadly virus. The ramifications are and will be felt right through UK and global society and the economy. Many companies and private individuals will sadly go bankrupt. Its real economic Armageddon.
Suffering: The degree of suffering is not really imaginable. The stress, depression, anguish and health impacts of this virus are extreme and the world has not seen anything likely it since 1918-
1920 Spanish flu when 5 million people died – causing a massive depression. Far less extreme than World War II but the economic impact is severe now doubt.
Global Interconnectivity: Now the world is far more interconnected – and social media and general internet and TV media has whipped up a frenzy with stressed panic that the politician cannot ignore. They need to act with empathy in this new connected world and show leadership which they are trying to do.
NHS Prime: The good news is the whole country has got behind the NHS and its key workers – and it is fortunate for both Tory and Labour parties that they both had the NHS wellbeing at the forefront of their Election manifestos, agendas and promises only a few months ago - so their support is a continuation of this important theme and it crosses all parties.
Underlying Causes: Not much is said about how the virus actually started – there are some pretty damning articles out there blaming China (experiments on viruses found in bats in Chinese research labs etc) – but we will never likely get a straight story and its doubtful despite the epic proportions of this health crisis that the World Health Organisation will ever do a thorough investigation despite the hundreds of thousands of deaths. We hope the truth comes out one day, but sadly – like the genocide in Rwanda when the UN stood there and did nothing, we might not get an objective truth about how it all started and whether it could have been mitigated.
Health Statistics: A few statistics that are still developing – that might help you – it seems that in general terms:
- 80% of people that get the Coronavirus don’t show any symptoms
- Of the 20% that show symptoms, 80% of people only show mild manageable symptoms and 20% show severe symptoms
- Of the 20% that get severe symptom – may be half go to hospital and about 20% of the 20% severe cases end up in intensive care. Those worst affected – will end up on a ventilator – using mechanical assisted breathing. If one ends up on a ventilator, there is only a 25% chance of several.
- Men seem to be almost double the risk of fatality from Coronavirus compared with women – whether this is because their immune systems are weaker (less developed) or they take less care of themselves – eating/drinking/smoking/weight - is up for debate.
- If you smoke significant numbers of cigarettes are day (say 20 a day), then you are 14 times more likely to die of the Coronavirus – studies from China suggest.
- If you have an underlying health issue you are probably five times more
likely to die from the Coronavirus than if you don’t have one
- If you are obese or significantly overweight – your chances of contracting severe coronavirus symptoms increase significantly – as does death – this might be because its more difficult breathing if you are overweight
- People in the age group 65-90 are ten times more likely to die of Coronavirus than people 50-65 years old – the older you get, the higher the risks – since you will generally be weaker and will have a weaker immune system than a young person
- Average weekly UK deaths in the week 20-27 March at 11,600 per day is the same is late March 2019 – no increase – however by mid April (week 14) – daily death rates have shot up to around 16,800 a day – with say 2/3rd of these being recorded as Coronavirus related (around 800 a day for the week to 17 April), but may be 3500 extra deaths probably attributed to peoples reluctance to go to hospital and less proactive medical stances from both patients and medical services.
- City areas have a far higher incidence of Coronavirus – this could be related to a number of factors:
- Younger populations that mingle, interact (for instance on busy transport systems) and socialise more – more tactility
- Airports are where the Coronavirus have travelled in from China – international-global travel makes cities the first to be affected
- African-Americans in the USA:
- 32% of people in Louisiana are African-American – however, over 70% of Coronavirus deaths are in African-Americans - why this is, is probably a combination of the following:
- African-American often have front line service jobs that puts then in higher risk bracket
- Assess to health insurance is lower
- Possibly more underlying health issues
- Coronavirus testing proportionally likely have in white people
- African-American might be less likely to wear face masks –- and its been described by a prominent African-American as “because of the fear of being mistaken for a dangerous criminal”
Wait and See: For all property investors, it’s time to wait and see. It’s almost impossible to market and sell properties at this time or chance tenants. Its worrying times for everyone. We just hope this terrible pandemic passes by quickly and the economic and social environment gets back to how it used to be with some restrictions. Its likely the full UK lockdown will last until at least 7 May - then between some and many restrictions will be lifted, but things really wont return to normal until at least early 2021 in our view. The next Special Report will focus more on investments, but for this one – its best to just say thank you to the NHS and all the care workers and key workers that are helping the country pull through this emergency – secondarily, along with all the private sector people that of course pay their taxes to support these services many of whom have lost their jobs or are quite rightly worried about the future.
We hope this update has helped - more on the health and safety side of things. If you have any queries, please do not hesitate to contact us on enquiries@propertyinvesting.net.