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124: Country investment attractiveness model


03-17-2007

PropertyInvesting.net team

 

This special report illustrates an economic model that is used to predict future capital price movements in some key countries around the globe. The analysis is subjective and based on a PropertyInvesting.nets views on a mix of GDP growth, demographics, land shortage, services industry and current house prices. There is a good deal of background economic research that has gone into the analysis and predictive knowledge our track record in predictions is good, hence we are confident the model delivers valuable insights to you as a visitor to our website. The model theory is predicated on the assumption that property prices will rise fastest in countries with:

 

          high projected GDP growth

          high population growth

          intense land and building supply shortages

          high exposure to services sector businesses

          low current property prices compared with global averages

 

If you do not believe in this general theory, suggest you move on and do not use the model. The model is simple, and we believe it is an effective tool to use as guidance prior to detailed research on specific investment areas and types of property in a chosen country. The model can be used as an early screening tool to weed out country on a low growth path and those on a high growth path. However, the model does not include exposure to tax changes, security issues or political risk.

 

China, India, England-south and Luxemburg all come out very high ranking. These are therefore PropertyInvesting.nets preferred property investment areas.  If one looks for low risk and high growth areas England-south, Ireland and Luxemburg all do well.

 

Its also important to then consider areas within the country that will benefit from positive change an example is Stratford in east London which will benefit from the London Olympics and Eurostar (High Speed One) International Railways Station in the next 2-5 years. Regenerating areas show the biggest boost in prices particularly historic regenerating areas. An example has been Dubrovnic in Croatia and Barcelona in Spain. Notting Hill was a good example of an area that regenerated in the 1980s and is now one of the most expensive areas of London 

 

If you have any comments on the economic model and analysis, please contact us a enquiries@propertyinvesting.net

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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