PropertyInvesting.net: Property Investment Special Reports

160: Find out the winners and losers in the biggest oil boom in history - about to happen...

09-15-2007

PropertyInvesting.net team

Super-Boom: As PropertyInvesting.net website visitors will be aware, we are predicting a super-boom in oil prices as global oil production plateaus at 83.5 million barrels a day whilst underlying demand is forecast to rise according to our unique analysis (assuming prices of $70 / bbl) by at least an additional 1.3 million barrels a day per year for the next 8 years. The only realistic way that demand will reduce is if oil prices skyrocket.

What Oil Price?  In the UK, 80% of petrol prices are tax. Most people will not alter their driving behaviour unless petrol prices double – so this would imply oil prices rising from $70 / bbl to $420 / bbl! Even if taxes were only 50%, it would imply oil prices rising from $70 / bbl to $140 / bbl. Because we believe global peak oil production will be from now until 2012 – a plateau of around 83.5 million barrels day (according to our unique analysis that has taken years to prepare) – we predict oil prices will rise to $125 / barrel by end 2008 because of supply shortages. All this assumes Saudi Arabia can ramp up production from 8.8 million barrels a day (June 2007) to 11 million barrels a day (end 2008) – a tall order.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Get Prepared: So investors, get ready for the biggest oil price hike you have ever seen.

We assumed that oil price would rise from $70 / bbl in early August 2007, then by 30% per annum until 2011 until they reached $200 bbl / bbl - demand would then drop and oil prices would rise by a further 15% then 10% per annum until 2015. This scenario assumes China’s economy continues to grow at 10% per annum, India at 7% per annum and USA by 2.0 - 2.5% per annum. These oil prices will hit global GDP growth but would not lead to a financial meltdown or recession in most countries.

Analysis

We have prepared a unique analysis of how much net oil revenue surplus and deficit would be created per person when/if the oil price followed the above trend - as we predict. After you see these chart, we are almost certain they will drive your property investing behaviour. It's clear the European places to be investing in are:

• Norway
• Russia

It is clear that good higher risk opportunities exist in the Middle East and North Africa in:

• UAE
• Kuwait
• Saudi
• Qatar
• Lybia
• Algeria

It is also clear that the following developed countries are particularly exposed to high oil prices:

• Korea
• Japan
• Germany
• Holland (abeit Holland has plentiful gas) 
• Spain
• Italy
• USA (but only as much as Germany)

It is also clear that India and China - per person, are little impacted.

A few gems appear:

• UAE (massive boom town in Dubai - looks set to continue)
• Brunei  (200,000 bbls of oil per day, 0.5 million population and loads of LNG gas)
• Azerbijan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We hope you have found these unique insights valuable. For all those UK investors, take heart, the UK is fairly well protected from high oil prices. And where will all the Trillions of US dollars from Russia, the Middle East and Africa end up - in the West End of London.....

And for all those worried US investors, it's not quite as bad as it looks - the USA has more coal in barrels of oil equivalent than any other country in the world. If gasoline consumption could be reduced by more efficient automobiles this would help - and there is no shortage of coal for power. There is also a growing supply of oil sands in Canada - and some hope for oil shales in Colorado (will this be the next US property hot spot?).

So - don't be surprised to see property prices rising in Norway, UAE, Russia, London, Saudi, Brunei and Lybia!

We hope this special report has been helpful to you. Please give us any feedback on enquiries@propertyinvesting.net or our Weblog.  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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