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335: World Cup economic performance progress update


234: London Olympic Games - impact on London property             9 am Sunday 27th June

Just a quick progress update on our World Cup predictions based on economic performance. So far the outcomes have been consistent with the rankings - please review below. No surprise Italy went out. Remember this is an economic performance listing (not a list of the best sides) - so it clearly shows the better performing economic countries tend to do far better. Serbia went out, but unluck for them they were playing Ghana, Germany and Australia, all do very well economically. world-cup-south-africa-2010-logo

Remember the theory based on historical analogues is that better economic performance feeds into an improved nation psych, belief in winning and team spirit - the feeling of "we can win".

With regret, England looks like going out later today against Germany if our table is correct. Hope this helps if you are a betting person!  And all this for free!

Economic Performance Table

1.      Germany           In (In) (In)

2.      Australia           Just failed to quality (but playing top 8: Ghana, Germany and Serbia)

3.      Brazil                In (In) (Out)

4.      Holland             In (In) (In) (Final)

5.      Switzerland       Just failed to qualify

6.      Serbia              Failed  (but playing top 8: Ghana, Germany and Australia)

7.      Chile                In (Out)

8.      Ghana              In (In) (Out) (very unlucky to be out - after winner hand-balled in last 10 seconds)

9.      New Zealand      Just failed to qualify (played far better than expected)

10.   Denmark            Failedhout-bay-cape-town-south-africa-2010-world-cup

11.   South Korea       In (Out)

12.   France              Failed

13.   Japan               In  (Out)

14.   Argentina          In (In) (Out)

15.   South Africa       Failed

16.   England             In (Out) performace as expected

17.   Algeria               Failed

18.   Uruguay             In (In) (In) (Out)

19.   Paraguay           In (In) (Out)

20.   USA                  In (Out)

21.   Cameroon          Failed

22.   Nigeria              Failed

23.   Slovakia            In  (but played 20 USA and 17 Algeria)

2010-world-cup-cape-town-studium24.   Italy                 Failed

25.   Mexico              In  (just scraped in)

26.  Spain               In (In) (In) but playing Portugal No 29)

26.   North Korea       Failed

27.   Honduras           Failed

28.   Cote de Ivoire    Failed

29.   Portugal            In (but played 28 Cote de Ivoire and 26 North Korea) (OUT)

30.   Greece              Failed

For full explanation, refer to our Special Report 329 - written just before the tournament started.

Red colour indicates the precieved most miserable failures (tend to bunch down the bottom of list)

England's Failure Analysis

Surrounded by foreign club players: Here's our analysis of why England failed so miserably to perform. The simple fact is that, although the England players are all pretty reasonable player individually and play for top world clubs, they are not actually as good as you might think. When they play for their clubs, they look far better than they actually are because they are surrounded by the very highest quality foreign players in the world. The very best African, Asian, South American and European players - all supplying excellent crosses and passing superbly. The diversity at club level is unique - and when the England players are denuded of their club foreign play-makers, they look like very ordinary players.  Arsenal are an interesting example - excellent club side - can anyone name an England player at Arsenal?

Lack of Competition at School: The lack of sporting competition at schools is another underlying cause - probably getting less competitive as years go by. Despite the Olympics being two years away, there is little sign of any real sport playing enthusiasm - we are a bunch of arm-chair commentators. It's hardly like the rough streets of Rio and Lagos where footballers get out of the gettos to earn a living. 

National Pschye: Another aspect is national pschye are pride. England football players get paid millions of pounds a year - if they fail at the World Cup, they will still be super wealthy and drive massive Porsche Cheyanne's - their desire to win for the country is probably less than for their club. A classic example is central defense - John Terry is able to come out after all the scandles this year, and speak on behalf of the players even though he isn't even third place choice as Captain - in fact he was sacked as Captain. But he still gets selected because we have no-one else better. And John Terry did not play well at all. We better just get used to the fact England aren't going to win any tournaments. There are too many underlying issues that hold the players back. They do not seem to be comfortable playing as a team at national level together - may be they don't get on with each other or don't respect each other or some other issues - overall, even though individually they are good plays - they cannot play together as a team.

Diversity Lacking: The lack of diversity within the England side is quite staggering - if you do an analysis, every player selected apart from two are from the Liverpool-Manchester or London areas. And unlike the Germans, have you ever seen someone being given English nationality so they can play for England? Many excellent players also choose Scotland, Ireland and Wales over England. 

We Did Well All Things Considering! The good news is we qualified and got through to the knock-out stages, and may be we should be commending this? It's not so bad considering the tough season the players have, John Terry's behaviour all year, and the fact the foreign players are not supporting their play anymore.

National Pride and Passion: Regrettably, this seemed to be lacking - it was certainly not easy to spot. But this may have something to do with the individual player's self esteem and self respect being low. Yes, when they are feeling good they can play - e.g. when they are playing at home for their clubs. But go away from home and put them in front of some less forgiving England fans, and it's possible this zaps their self esteem, self belief and then this affects their football. Why was Rooney not able to get one shot on target in four games? Why was Gerrard so ineffectual except for a brief 15 minute spelling during the Slovakia game. Next time they need to put behind them their inflated salaries and egos, play as a team for their nation and play with national passion and pride!

Economically Average: Economically and nationally - we have been worsening in the last ten years with England player lacking pride in their nation in part because it has not been very successful of late. It has not got a winning national mentality - this could change with the new government. It could also be that the media pressure is just too much for the players to handle - giving them the benefit of the doubt. Intense pressure and a fat bank account - not a good combination - and they're probably just glad to get back home to their chavs and start enjoying life again. Every 24 hours in a day away from home was probably lonely - considering they only work 4 hours a day normally and spend the rest of the time relaxing with their wives and kids - it must be a big change.

Some Key Pointers: the underlying cause could be a combination of the follow - the players:

Bottom line is - three weeks away from the wives, kids, big cars and beer with people they don't like is probably enough to drive half of them up the wall. No wander they want to go back home! They were sober and lonely!

England - we will always be your fans...

(apologies for being so frank - but sometimes - its best to try and get to the route cause - and don't expect any football commentators to mention the above - because they want to keep their jobs!)




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