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432: Oil Production Consumption - Surplus/Deficit - Modelling - Insights For Investors


06-20-2012

PropertyInvesting.net team

We have prepared this unique oil production, consumption, export, import and surplus, deficit modelling for all countries in the world from 1965 to 2011 and forecast to 2018. This is the only such work in the world. The reason why we have gone to such lengths to prepare this, is that we wish to share key insights into the economic world we live in - to help investors focus their capital in the right place at the right time. As a guide, the countries that will do best economically - and hence will have higher returns will be those that have:

  1. oil exports
  2. increasing oil exports
  3. small populations
  4. good efficient manufacturing and financial services industries
  5. high security, safety, low crime and high standards of goverance, transparency with little corruption

The analysis below will give you insights into 1, 2 and 3. When you also consider 4 and 5 - the top countries are:

Expect these countries to have a strengthening currencies, balance of payments surpluses, low unemployment and rising property prices in the longer term.

If you are looking within a region, it will not take a rocket scientist to see that Kuwait and Qatar will be the big winners in the next 20 years.

We suggest you browse the presentation and use it as a reference document when you chose a country to invest in. As you can see, countries like Spain and Italy have massive oil import bills - which partly explains why they have such high deficits and have large government debts after ten years of high oil prices inflicting pain - leading the the Euro crisis.

The oil production and consumption modelling is built up from each individual country in a database - along with population, actual and forecast oil prices and forecast oil consumption and production from 2011 to 2018. As you can imagine, it's not been easy putting this mathematical-technical and analysitical model together. We hope you find it insightful. And it helps with your investments whatever and wherever they may be.

_________________________________________________________________

Oil Production Global All Liquids

The below chart is a key one. It shows continued global consumption growth, but production lags behind, consistently since we noticed an abnormality June 2007. the good news is supply keeps rising, The bad news is consumption rises just as fast. This chart also includes bio-fuels which is increasing in supply as well. What it means is that oil prices should stay above $85/bbl - but its quite possible they will be kept below $150/bbl for a while as new supplies come on-stream. The supply crunch seen a few years ago has partly worked its way out because all countries are drilling like crazy to take advantage of high oil prices. Supply really is increasing now. But this can be set back by supply disruptions such as Iran, Sudan etc.  

Oil-Production-Global-All-Liquids

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus Africa

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-Africa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus - All Regions Key Countries

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-All-Regions-Key-Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus - Far East And South Asia

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-Far-East-And-South-Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus - Largest Winner And Losers

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-Largest-Winner-And-Losers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus Per Person - All Regions

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-Per-Person-All-Regions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus Per Person - Far East And South Asia

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-Per-Person-Far-East-South-Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus Per Person - Largest Winners And Losers

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-Per-Person-Largest-Winners-And-Losers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus Per Person -Largest Winners And Losers

 

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-Per-Person-Largest-Winners-Losers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Export Revenue Surplus Per Person Per Year - All Regions

Annual-Net-Export-Revenue-Surplus-Per-Person-Per-Year-all-regions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Revenue Surplus/Deficit - Europe

Annual-Net-Oil-Revenue-Surplus-Deficit-Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Revenue Surplus/Deficit - Middle East

Annual-Net-Oil-Revenue-Surplus-Deficit-Middle-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Revenue-Surplus/Deficit - North America

Annual-Net-Oil-Revenue-Surplus-Deficit-North-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Revenue Surplus/Deficit Per Person - Europe

Annual-Net-Oil-Revenue-Surplus-Deficit-Per-Person-Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Revenue Surplus/Deficit Per Person - Middle East

Annual-Net-Oil-Revenue-Surplus-Deficit-Per-Person-Middle-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Revenue Surplus/Deficit - South America

Annual-Net-Oil-Revenue-Surplus-Deficit-South-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Revenue Surplus/Deficit - UK

Production crashes from 2002 - accelerating after tax increased in 2003 and 2011 - rendering large tracts of the North Sea sub-economic despite increasing oil prices due to hugely increasing UK government tax take

Annual-Net-Oil-Revenue-Surplus-Deficit-UK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Revenue Surplus Per Person - North America

Annual-Net-Oil-Revenue-Surplus-Per-Person-North-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Oil Surplus/Deficit Per Person - Europe

Annual-Net-Oil-Surplus-Deficit-Per-Person-Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annual Net Revenue Surplus/Deficit Per Person - South America

Annual-Net-Revenue-Surplus-Deficit-Per-Person-South-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Net Oil Export Forecast - Middle East

Daily-Net-Oil-Export-Forecast-Middle-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Net Oil Export Forecast - Middle East

Daily-Net-Oil-Export-Forecast-Middle-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Net Oil Export Import Forecast - Europe

Daily-Net-Oil-Export-Import-Forecast-Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Net Oil Export Import Forecast - South America

Daily-Net-Oil-Export-Import-Forecast-South-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Net Oil Import Export Forecast - Africa

Daily-Net-Oil-Import-Export-Forecast-Africa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Net Oil Import Export Forecast Far East And South Asia

Daily-Net-Oil-Import-Export-Forecast-Far-East-South-Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Net Oil Import Export Forecast - North America

Daily-Net-Oil-Import-Export-Forecast-North-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Oil Cost-Deficit-Surplus Per Region

Global-Oil_Cost-Deficit--Surplus-Per-Region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Oil Cost Deficit Surplus Per Region

Global-Oil-Cost-Deficit-Surplus-Per-Region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Oil Production 1965-2011 And Predicted To 2018

Global-Oil-Production-1965-2011-Predicted-To-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth Oil Consumption - Asia Pacific

Growth-Oil-Consumption-Asia-Pacific

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Exports Imports Of Oil Per Region

Net-Exports-Imports-Of-Oil-Per-Region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Oil Export Import Asia - Large Countries

Net-Oil-Export-Import-Asia-Large-Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Oil Export Import Europe

Net-Oil-Export-Import-Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Oil Export Import North America

 

Net-Oil-Export-Import-North-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Oil Exports Imports - Middle East

Net-Oil-Exports-Imports-Middle-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net Oil Exports Imports Per Region

Net-Oil-Exports-Imports-Per-Region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Consumption - Middle East

Oil-Consumption-Middle-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Consumption Production Forecast - World

Oil-Consumption-Production-Forecast-World

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Cost Per Region Global

Oil-Cost-Per-Region-Global

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Depletion Rate 2007

Oil-Depletion-Rate-2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Gross Sales Per Region

Oil-Gross-Sales-Per-Region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Price Forecast Actual And Forecast To 2018

Key Insight: After years of economic analysis of monetary policy, we have concluded that the US GDP deficit is -10% per annum. Because of this, the Fed will need to print 10% of GDP per year - in other words inflate by 10% per year to "keep its head above water". This will in any normal year lead to an increase of 10% in the oil prices as Middle Eastern countries strive to keep purchasing power of the oil barrel produced. Hence it is a reasonable assumption that oil prices will rise 10% a year on average - - as a base case - but fluctuating wildly around this figure in relation to:

If the supply demand picture remains constant, as we believe it will moving forward from our modelling, then economically - inflation of oil price should be 10% because of the US deficit of 10%.

Oil-Price-Forecast-Actual

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production 2007 - top countries in ranked order

Oil-Production-2007-top-countries-ranked

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production Africa - 1995 to 2018 (forecast)

Oil-Production-Africa-1995-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production Africa - Peak Oil was reached in 2008 - despite positive stories, oil production is now in decline

Oil-Production-Africa-Peak-Oil-2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - Asia Pacific :   Oil production peaked in 2010 and should now be in decline

Oil-Production-Asia-Pacific

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - Asia Pacific - 1995 to 2018 (forecast)

Oil-Production-Asia-Pacific-1995-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - Europe - 1965-2018 (forecast):  Oil is on a plateau mainly from increases in production in  "The Stans" and Russia. Norway has been in steep decline but new discoveries are likely to arrest this for a while. UK oil production meanwhile continues to crash after successive tax increased has drive investment overseas and renders large tracks of the UK sector sub-economic.

Oil-Production-Europe-1965-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-

 

Production Europe EuroAsia - 1995 to 2018

Oil-Production-Europe-EuroAsia-1995-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production Global - 1965 to 2018 (forecast)

 

Oil-ProductionGlobal-1965-2018-Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production Middle East - 1965 to 2018 (forecast)

Oil-Production-Middle-East-1965-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - Middle East - 1995 to 2018 (forecast)

Oil-Production-Middle-East-1995-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - North America - 1995 to 2018 (forecast)

Oil-Production-North-America-1995-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production Revenue - 2008

Oil-Production-Revenue-2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - SE Asia - 1965 to 2018 (forecast)

 

Oil-Production-SE-Asia-1965-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - Middle East -1995 to 2018 (forecast)

Oil-Production-Middle-East-1995-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production Supply-Demand Deficit

 

Oil-Production-Supplu-Demand-Deficit

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - UK  :  Around 1999 Labour increased North Sea taxes - production immediately started a steep decline. Labour increased North Sea taxes again around 2003 leading to further declines. Despite oil prices rising to $125/bbl by March 2011 oil production was still incline, but then the Tory Coalition further massively increased North Sea oil taxes in a shock announcement. This precipated a gigantic -25% production crash in the following 12 months and this should continue because of lack of investment, oil companies being driven overseas and large tracts of the North Sea being rendered un-economic. After merely 12 months, the Treasury is now making less oil tax revenue in March 2012 than Feb 2012 before their rise. An unmitigating disaster for UK employment, investment, manufacturing GDP and oil revenues for the state. The UK now has the world's most unstable tax regime after 3 increases in 12 years.  

Oil-Production-UK-crash-collapse-crisis-tax-hike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production Venezuela - Production started a crash-collapse after the oil industry was nationalised in 1999.

Oil-Production-Venezuela-Crash-Collapse

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production World Per Region - 1995 to 2018 (forecast)

Oil-Production-World-Per-Region-1995-2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Production - 2007 - Smaller Countries

Oil-Propduction-2007-Smaller-Countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Reserves Growth - Asia Pacific - 1980 to 2011

Oil-Reserves-growth-Asia-Pacific-1980-2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Revenue - Per Person 2008

Oil-Revenue-Per-Person-2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil Revenue - Smaller Countries

Oil-Revenue-smaller-countries

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proven Oil Reserves 2007

Proven-Oil-Reserves-2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proven Oil Reserves - end 2007

proven-Oil-Reserves-end-2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Significant Oil Production Increases / Decreases

 

Significant-Oil-Production-Increases-Decreases

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-World

Oil-Reserves-World

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-South-America

Oil-Reserves-South-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-Africa

Oil-Reserves-Africa

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-Asia-Pacific

Oil-Reserves-Asia-Pacific

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-Europe

Oil-Reserves-Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-Middle-East

Oil-Reserves-Middle-East

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-North-America

Oil-Reserves-North-America

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-Oil-depletion-Rate

Oil-Reserves-Oil-depletion-Rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-Oil-Depletion-Rate-Largest-Reserves-Holders-2011

Oil-Reserves-Oil-Depletion-Rate-Largest-Reserves-Holders-2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-Proven-Oil-Reserves-2011

Oil-Reserves-Proven-Oil-Reserves-2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oil-Reserves-Proven-Oil-Reserves-World

Oil-Reserves-Proven-Oil-Reserves-World

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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