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125: Commercial investment attractiveness of cities around the world

03-17-2007 team


This special report illustrates an economic model that is used to predict future capital price movements and leasehold commercial demand in some key countries around the globe. The analysis is subjective and based on a’s views on a mix of GDP growth, jobs growth, land shortage, services business growth and current commercial prices (mix of rental yields an capital prices) and political risk. There is a good deal of background economic research that has gone into the analysis and predictive knowledge – our track record in property price predictions is good – we are confident the model delivers valuable insights to you as a visitor to our website. The model theory is predicated on the assumption that commercial property prices and leasehold prices will rise fastest in countries with:



If you do not believe in this general theory, suggest you move on and do not use this analysis. The model is simple and is an effective tool to use as guidance prior to detailed research on specific investment areas and types of commercial property in a chosen country. The model can be used as an early screening tool to weed out a country on a low commercial growth path and from those on a high growth path. 


China, India, England-south and Luxemburg all come out very high ranking. These are therefore’s preferred commercial property investment areas.  If one looks for low risk and high growth areas – England-south, Ireland and Luxemburg all do well.


It is also important to then consider areas within the city area that will benefit from positive change – an example is – Kings Cross in NE London will benefit from the London Olympics and Eurostar (High Speed One) International Railways Station in the next 2-5 years. Regenerating areas can also boost commercial property prices - examples are Stratford and the Docklands in East London, Leeds city centre, Duke St area of Liverpool and Salford in Manchester. Shanghi will benefit from the 2008 Olympics. Liverpool from the 2008 European City of Culture. Cape Town and Jo'burg from the 2010 Football World Cup.


If you have any comments on the economic model and analysis, please contact us a





















































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