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649: General Election update

11-01-2019 team

The Election Battle Has Begun:   Jeremy Corbyn has started his campaign 31 Oct in Battersea, just over the river from Parliament. Typically his rally started with attacks on “dodgy landlords”, then Corbyn tries to make the link between Brexit, Boris Johnson, Trump and doing dirty deals behind the scenes to sell off the National Heath Service – all ludicrous populist socialist diatribe.  Make no mistake – if Corbyn becomes the next Prime Minister, he will attack all Landlords and blame the housing crisis on them. Anyone seen to invest in property will be demonized. He will try using forceable methods to seize property off private individuals and nationalise them – make them into social/council housing. he will try and seize ex-council houses of private individuals and landlords. If he gets enough seats for a socialist majority these policies will be voted and driven through. He is the most extreme socialist leader in Europe. We just hope intelligent British people don’t fall this this rubbish. Its very dangerous and very toxic to business – which is after all where all tax revenues come from that then pay for the public sector – something Corbyn seems to either not know about or disregard in he quest to gain populist votes.

Tory Lead: Currently Boris Johnson is 15-17 points ahead in the voting intension polls – but Teressa May was 20 points head and ended up losing her majority once Corbyn got on his campaign trail. So he should not be underestimated. However, this time, he has recently demonstrated:

• His Cabinet is weak and clueless on numbers – the finances - no-one trusts them fiscally
• His party is systematically anti-sematic – with many cover-ups on investigation and in denial that a problem exists. He refuses to denounce terrorism. He does not support the UK military defence forces - navy-army-fair force - we'd all have to worry about our security.
• Corbyn has frustrated the will of the people by blocking Brexit at every possible opportunity – not becomes he wants to stay in Europe, but because he thinks humiliating the Tories will lead him to gain power. What we are saying is that he does not care about the UK economy, business, employment or Brexit – he only cares about power – so he can launch is Marxist-socialist policies on the country.

What Happens If Labour Get In: For all property investors, we want to be crystal clear that any Labour, or Labour-Lib Dem-SNP Coalition would be a disaster for the property market, buy-to-let, house prices and rental businesses. Landlords would be demonised. We would see:

• Sterling crash as business confidence wanes, taxes on businesses and 60% of the population that earn more than the poor rise dramatically (Euro to Pound parity)
• Interest rates will rise sharply
• Inflation rates will rise
• Public sector spending would increase
• Private sector spending would decrease
• More regulations on business and individuals – more “nanny state”
• Rent caps, renters right to buy, landlords targeted -driven out of the market
• State seizure of assets and nationalisation
• State taxes on private pensions, higher inheritance taxes
• Land taxes – also on gardens
• Banks would start to relocate overseas as taxes on banking rose sharply
• Unemployment would rise sharply especially in southern England and London – when businesses started closing
• House prices across the board would crash – in part through higher property taxes and the flight of the wealthy from the UK to avoid draconian taxes
• There could be some temporary jobs growth in the north from public sector jobs expansion as more regulations came into force – but this would be temporary before the big downturn started.

What Has Changed: What has changed though since the last election in 2017 is the Tory party have a new leader Boris Johnson – who compared with Teressa May – has charisma, has a broad popular base within the Tory party and is pretty good at engaging and getting a clear message across. He also probably has some very smart advisers that use political analytics to test messages and win votes. The turmoil in Parliament seems to have helped Boris Johnson in the opinion polls. Though he lost many votes, the general population can see – and this would be his plan – that it is clearly Labour the Lib Dems that have been blocking Brexit and the will of the people at every opportunity. Boris Johnson has always wanted to make it about Brexit – since the opposition has blown hot-cold on different policies on almost a daily basis, giving mixed messages.  

Its shaping up to be a battle royal. The themes are likely to be:

Tories  (sensible policies for growth and stability)
• Labour have frustrated the will of the people for too long and Brexit – let’s get it done quickly
• Let’s invest more in the NHS
• Let’s look to the future where we can control our destiny, with IT upgrades, new jobs and growth whilst being fiscally prudent and stable

Labour  (deluded socialist rhetoric that in our view will lead to recession and economic collapse)
• The Tories want to break up the NHS, do deals with Trump
• Dodgy landlords, bankers, oil men are destroying society and the environment
• We need to nationalise railways, all parts of the NHS (there should be no out-sourcing)
• Worker’s rights and tenant’s rights need improving
• Taxes on the wealthy and companies need to rise
• Brexit is a side issue and it will be easily fixed by Labour once Labour craft a better deal that improves worker’s rights

Pivotal Moment 3am 13 December: For property investors, by 3am Friday 13 December (when exit Polls are confirmed) – it will be a pivotal moment in the history of Britain.  If we get a clear Tory majority – more than say 5-10 seats, then we will see Boris Johnson run the country for the next 5 years with steady economic growth and a housing boom. The UK will stay together as the Tories will try and block another Scottish Referendum. London house prices will shoot up within a few years by at least 20-30% as all the uncertainty goes away and international investment comes streaming in. The Midlands and North will eventually see a ripple effect. Employment will rise sharply, GDP growth will pick up sharply. A huge relief in the business community after 3 years of angst and uncertainty will be lift as we exit the EU by end Jan 2020.

Labour Disaster: However, if we see Labour getting into power it will be completely the opposite. London house prices will crash as draconian tax increase are announced in Corbyn’s first budget. Landlords will be demonised. Oil workers will be demonized. Bankers will be demonized. Private sector investors will hide away, move abroad to get away from socialist Britain as vindictive socialists target anyone with any money – seizing assets to give hand-outs to the 30% least well off. Unemployment will rise sharply as businesses close down. Public sector jobs and regulations would increase dramatically – lots of jobsworths doing very little apart from getting in the way of business. International investors will also be demonized for causing the housing crisis – by buying London apartments. Finally Corbyn would do a deal with SNP to give them another Referendum that they could win marginally say 51% for the nationals that would then split up Britain.

Labour-Lib Dem Coalition No Better: If there was a Labour Lib-Dem Coalition possibly also with the SNP – to keep the Tories out of power, then it would be very similar to Labour being in power, since SNP are almost as socialist as Labour, and the Lib-Dems are not far off these days and Labour will be calling he shots with the most seats. There would be a big shift towards attacking businesses for creating emissions that affect climate change – climate change levies would be introduced that would sent gas and petrol prices sky-rocketing. But this would be sold as “what we need to do to help the climate change efforts”. Labour would try and claim they are the climate change conscious party – eventually businesses closing down, recession and less employ would indeed reduce emissions.

Brexit Party: The latest rather development is that Farage is threatening the Tory party with open context in all 500 seats if an alliance is not reached very shortly. Boris Johnson may simply ignore these threats – he’ll be damned if he does and damned if he does not. If he is seen to form an alliance with a fairly radical hard line No Deal Brexiteer – then he could well lose out eventually. His credibility could be damaged by “taking the easy route” now. The Tory party strategy has always been to end the Brexit party – not help them get seats to then become some sort of King Maker in parliament down the road. All votes going to the Brexit party risks letting Corbyn in – then no Brexit will happen. Its rather unlikely Johnson will be seen to do a deal with Farage it would seem, though we cant tell just yet. Again, it’s another way Corbyn can get into power, Brexit stealing Tory votes. 

Summary: The bottom lines is – a rather binary yes-no - will become clear by 3am 13 December. It will either be a Tory victory and success for all descent hard working people who value private enterprise, or a Labour/Lib Dem Socialist Coalition that would be a complete disaster for housing, property investors and anyone who has a private sector job, or retired with any form of assets-wealth. It would be disastrous for the economy and the average person trying to eke out a living to support their families. It’s very worrying.  A Brexit party vote is likely to help Labour get into power, since it would likely be at the cost of the Tories. Only a Tory vote will keep out a socialist onslaught that would reek havoc for all British private enterprise. If you have any queries or comments, please do not hesitate to contact us on        

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